Fertilizer Supply Chains Upended as Tariffs Reshape Global Sourcing
A new analysis from North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Trade Monitor shows that recent U.S. tariffs are already shifting global fertilizer supply chains, creating potential long-term risks for American agriculture.
Following the Trump administration’s April decision to impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, fertilizer imports from tariff-covered countries have dropped sharply. Between April and September, U.S. imports of potash from those nations fell 31 percent, while imports from exempt partners such as Canada declined 12 percent. In contrast, imports from Russia, which was not subject to the new duties, surged.
A similar trend appeared in nitrogen products. Imports from tariffed countries fell 12 percent year-over-year, while shipments from untariffed suppliers, including Russia, climbed 44 percent. The authors of the report cautioned that while these shifts may help stabilize short-term supply, they deepen U.S. dependence on volatile foreign markets.
“This shift suggests stabilizing short-term supply and reduced cost pressures, but it also signals a deeper U.S. dependence on a geopolitically riskier supplier,” the report said.
The analysis also found widening price gaps between U.S. and Canadian producers. American farmers are paying a $34-per-ton premium for diammonium phosphate and $32 more for monoammonium phosphate compared to Canadian prices. While the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement carve-outs have helped keep potash prices steady, urea prices still show an $11-per-ton increase.
“While the tariffs did not cause the fertilizer price run-up, they have worsened the situation for U.S. farmers,” the authors concluded. “Producers now face a double burden: elevated global prices and tariff-induced premiums that competitors abroad do not face.”
Following the Trump administration’s April decision to impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, fertilizer imports from tariff-covered countries have dropped sharply. Between April and September, U.S. imports of potash from those nations fell 31 percent, while imports from exempt partners such as Canada declined 12 percent. In contrast, imports from Russia, which was not subject to the new duties, surged.
A similar trend appeared in nitrogen products. Imports from tariffed countries fell 12 percent year-over-year, while shipments from untariffed suppliers, including Russia, climbed 44 percent. The authors of the report cautioned that while these shifts may help stabilize short-term supply, they deepen U.S. dependence on volatile foreign markets.
“This shift suggests stabilizing short-term supply and reduced cost pressures, but it also signals a deeper U.S. dependence on a geopolitically riskier supplier,” the report said.
The analysis also found widening price gaps between U.S. and Canadian producers. American farmers are paying a $34-per-ton premium for diammonium phosphate and $32 more for monoammonium phosphate compared to Canadian prices. While the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement carve-outs have helped keep potash prices steady, urea prices still show an $11-per-ton increase.
“While the tariffs did not cause the fertilizer price run-up, they have worsened the situation for U.S. farmers,” the authors concluded. “Producers now face a double burden: elevated global prices and tariff-induced premiums that competitors abroad do not face.”