Where does Illinois Republican Sen. Mark S. Kirk start in his bid for re-election? It depends on whom you ask.

The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call currently rates the 2016 race as a Tossup, while the Cook Political Report says it is a “Lean Republican” contest. The folks in the statistical wing of the handicapping world are invisible, because the race hasn’t formed and there are no meaningful polls.

My own view is that Kirk has a significantly uphill fight for a second term. I regard him as an underdog.

Kirk certainly has a chance to win re-election, but the state’s fundamentals are so difficult for any Republican — even one with his appeal — that he is less than even money to win in 2016. Of course, my assessment could be different a year from now.

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